Residents of South Louisiana can expect an increased threat of rain and potentially severe weather across the region on Thursday. That threat is included in the forecast from the Storm Prediction Center but it does not appear as if the increased threat of rain and storms will be related to a weak tropical system that is expected to push into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.

nhc.noaa.gov
nhc.noaa.gov
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Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center say the system, which is located over Honduras early this morning, will likely slide into the Bay of Campeche by Friday. Once over the very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf, a low-pressure center is expected to form and that could lead to further development.

However, the prognosis from the Hurricane Center is that the weather system will struggle to get organized. Currently, forecasters have the probability of strengthening listed at only 20%.

However, based on this Tweet from Mike's Weather Page the Atlantic Basin could be starting to "wake up" after a very quiet start to the 2022 Hurricane Season.

So, what's going to bring the higher rain chances in for Wednesday night, the potential of severe storms on Thursday, and more rain for Friday?

wpc ncep noaa gov
wpc ncep noaa gov
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The catalyst for the increased threat of rain and Thursday and Friday is actually a frontal boundary that currently stretches from near Fort Smith Arkansas to the southeast of Mobile Alabama. That front is expected to sag southward and as it moves into Louisiana and closer to south Louisiana that's where the rain is expected to fall.

spc.noaa.gov
spc.noaa.gov
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The Storm Prediction Center has a portion of Central Louisiana included in the "marginal risk" zone for later this afternoon and almost all of South Louisiana at a "marginal risk" for severe storms by Thursday.

spc.noaa.gov
spc.noaa.gov
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Rain chances will rise to 80% for much of South Louisiana on Thursday,  70% on Thursday night, and 80% on Friday. The threat of showers eases off just a bit on Friday night but the National Weather Service is still calling for a good threat of showers for both Saturday and Sunday.

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