Louisiana Severe Weather Threat – Timing for Today’s Storms
The entire state of Louisiana from Venice to Shreveport and Tallulah to Lake Charles is a risk for strong to severe storms today. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting the worst of today's strong storms to stay north of I-10. The SPC says cities and towns such as Alexandria, Fort Polk, Ruston, and Monroe are at a greater risk for severe storms than residents of Lafayette, New Iberia, and Morgan City might be facing today.
The above graphic from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles zeroes in on where the worst of the weather is expected later today and tonight. As you can see I-10 is the dividing line between where forecasters have included a slight risk of severe storms versus a marginal risk of severe storms.
Forecasters in Lake Charles who pay special attention to South Louisiana and Southeast Texas are suggesting much of the threat from today's storms will come in the form of lightning and damaging winds. There is a minimal risk that some of the storms could produce isolated tornadoes or small hail as they rumble through the area.
Still, like the cone of uncertainty in a hurricane forecast, "close counts" so almost all of South Louisiana should be weather aware of strong storms that could become severe. There is also a marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall across most of the state today too. Excessive Rainfall is basically when drainage systems cannot keep up with the amount of precipitation falling from the sky. That usually results in street flooding as well as flash flooding.
The NWS Office in Lake Charles says we can expect rain and storms to move into the state from the west later today. Most of the daylight hours will be cloudy, breezy, and warm. The risk of rainfall is put at 40% over the forecast area. so we can't really rule out a shower after lunch. Rainfall chances begin to blossom late in the day. By tonight most of South Louisiana will be bracing for a 70% chance of rain and storms.
As far as the timing on the worst of the weather goes, this looks to be a nighttime rain event. Most of the heavy rain won't move into the area until after sundown and the storms should be exiting the area before sunrise on Thursday. So, if you like sleeping to the sound of rain and thunder, you should sleep well tonight.
And while we hope everyone's slumber won't be disrupted by a severe weather outbreak just be aware that strong storms with damaging winds and possible tornadoes are possible across the area tonight. Make sure you have our station App downloaded and adjust your alert settings to receive breaking news or breaking weather alerts should they be necessary.
Thursday should dawn mostly clear but decidedly cooler. Over the next few days, conditions will be seasonal with overnight low temperatures in the middle 40s and daytime highs in the 50s. Another round of rain is forecast to move into the area over the weekend so if you have outside plans you might want to start making adjustments. It does appear as if a significant rain threat will move into the area late Friday and stay until early Sunday morning.
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