Weather Service: Severe Weather & Flood Threat Looming for Louisiana

(Lake Charles, LA) Forecasters with the National Weather Service Office in Lake Charles will have their hands full this week as they do their best to help residents of southwestern Louisiana stay ahead of not one but two life-threatening weather issues this week.

Just for clarity's sake, the threats aren't just confined to the southwest corner of the state. All of Louisiana will be at risk for severe storms and have the potential for flooding downpours beginning later today, Monday, and extending through the early morning hours of Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center, the forecast wing of the National Weather Service that is tasked with predicting severe weather outbreaks, will be focusing on almost all of Louisiana beginning Tuesday. As of now, the SPC suggests the severe threat will be in the portions of the state that are basically west of the Mississippi River.

What Is Louisiana's Severe Weather Outlook This Week?

The current storm threat guidance from the SPC suggests a Marginal Risk for severe storms, but that is subject to change as a vigorous storm system makes its way eastward out of Texas during the week. Portions of extreme western Louisiana have a slightly higher risk of severe storms. That includes those who live in Shreveport, Leesville, Lake Charles, and along Toledo Bend Reservoir.

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Meanwhile, the Weather Prediction Center, the forecast wing of the National Weather Service responsible for quantitative precipitation forecasting and medium-range outlooks, is suggesting that flooding rains might be an even bigger issue for the state than any severe storm threat.

The potential for flooding rains will certainly affect a large area of the state. There is a moderate risk of "excessive rainfall" generally along and north of I-10 beginning Tuesday and extending through at least Thursday. 

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An "excessive rainfall event" is when rainfall rates exceed an area's ability to drain. In the Lafayette area, the drainage system can handle a two-inch per hour deluge, but only for a short while. It is possible Lafayette and other portions of the state could experience those kinds of downpours over the next few days.

The above graphic, provided by NWS/Lake Charles, suggests that pockets of rainfall across the state could exceed six inches or more. However, the general consensus is that the storm's total will top four inches in most locales.

Will It Flood In Louisiana This Week?

To make matters worse, much of the ground in Louisiana has been saturated by recent heavy rains, especially in South Central Louisiana, so generalized flooding and flash flooding could become an issue depending on how much rain falls.

If you do like to track the storms and normally use the NWS Radar scans from Lake Charles or Fort Johnson, you should be aware that those radar sites will be down for maintenance today through Thursday. No, not the best timing for that but, the work has to be done.

There are other radar sites in the NWS network that will provide coverage for those areas affected by the outage, so we will be able to give you a heads up on any approaching storms or torrential downpours. 

The heavy rain should begin to move out of the area by Thursday, and it does appear that Mother's Day Weekend will be less eventful, at least where Mother Nature is concerned.