Rare Forecast for Louisiana Suggests Severe Storms Monday

It happened one time that I can recall for Louisiana in 2024. Other than that, I don't recall seeing long-range National Weather Service severe weather forecasts zeroing in on a particular part of the country quite the way Monday and Tuesday's predictions do.

No, it's not unusual for Louisiana to experience severe storms during April. Severe weather in April and May is very much the norm for this part of the country during this time of the year. What makes this forecast "rare" is the unprecedented confidence in a severe weather threat that is still four and five days away.

Weather forecasts tend to become less accurate the further out in time they reach. For example, a 24-hour forecast is going to be very accurate in terms of sky conditions, precipitation, temperatures, and wind speeds. A forecast that extends for four days is only 90% accurate, a five-day forecast 80% accurate and the "every TV weatherman has one" 10-day forecast is only right about half the time.

In most cases, the Storm Prediction Center, the severe storm forecasting wing of the National Weather Service won't reach out more than a day or two ahead in their prognostication of violent storms and tornadoes. They want those forecasts to be as accurate as possible for two reasons. One, they help save lives. Two, if they are not accurate the public loses trust in the forecast, and then "they can't help save lives". You get the idea, right?

Storm Prediction Center Puts the Bullseye on Louisiana Monday and Tuesday

The Storm Prediction Center's outlook for Louisiana's severe storm potential will be updated later this morning. When that happens we expect to have a clearer view of Monday and Tuesday's severe weather threat.

The thinking as of early Friday morning is that northwestern Louisiana will experience strong storms on Monday and that area of concern will expand to include more of the state on Tuesday.

It does appear as though Shreveport, Bossier City, Ruston, Natchitoches, Alexandria, and Leesville will be under the gun on Monday. The cities of Opelousas, Eunice, Lafayette, and Lake Charles might be included in the greatest area of concern by Tuesday.

The fact that the Weather Service has reached this far out with as much confidence in the forecast as they appear to have should be concerning for residents of Louisiana. I think it's a pretty safe bet we'll have showers and storms to start the work week. We will fine-tune the severe weather threat over the next few days so do check back with us often.