Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms Expanded Across Louisiana Today

Last week when we reported the Storm Prediction Center was showing a "significant severe weather threat for Louisiana on Monday" we knew it would be something to watch. The Storm Prediction Center very rarely issues a severe storm forecast that far ahead but the models were showing what is about to transpire over the Gulf South today.

The graphic you see above is from the SPC and will likely be updated as we move through the morning. You can see three distinct outlines on the map. The darker green indicates a marginal risk of severe storms. That includes much of Louisiana's I-20 corridor and cities such as Shreveport, Monroe, and Ruston.

The second tier threat is in yellow, which is the slight risk of severe storms. That risk covers much of the central and southwestern corner of the state. Lake Charles and Alexandria would be included in this forecast zone. Much of the western half of Acadiana would be considered to be in this risk zone.

The third tier threat is the greatest threat on the SPC map for today. That is an enhanced risk of severe weather. The boundaries for the enhanced threat include the cities of Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans. Severe weather forecasters are fine-tuning the timing of today's storms and here's what that looks like.

That is the GRAF Model projection courtesy of Bradley Benoit and KATC.com. Bradley thinks the timing of the storm system will be a little slower than what forecasters were thinking over the weekend. Instead of the worst of the weather arriving in Acadiana for the middle of the afternoon, Bradley is suggesting the heavier storms won't move through until later in the evening.

Based on this model projection the heart of Acadiana will be under the gun from about 6 this evening until about 11 tonight. It is quite likely that severe weather watches and warnings will be issued as this storm system moves through.

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Make sure you have our station App downloaded and please for the safety of yourself and your family, enable alerts for weather for this evening especially.

Rainfall totals from this storm range anywhere from under an inch to over three inches of rain. Forecasters are suggesting a general rainfall of one to two inches over the I-10 corridor as the storm system moves through. As you can see in the graphic above, the GRAF Model is projecting more substantial rain totals for parishes that are east of Lafayette compared to those that are west of Lafayette.

Meanwhile, there is a wind advisory posted for the area today. Wind gusts over tropical storm force will be common. There is also a coastal flood advisory for the coastal parishes and almost all of Acadiana is under a flood watch through Tuesday.

But once the system moves out of the area but midnight tonight, the rain should begin to taper off and cooler temperatures will move in. Forecasters say the low Wednesday morning could be near the freezing mark so frost and freeze advisories will likely be posted for portions of Louisiana for that on Tuesday.