Enhanced Severe Weather Threat for Acadiana Today
So, Mother Nature, five landfalling tropical cyclones wasn't enough? You just had to get in one more shot fired in the general direction of the good people of South Louisiana one more time? I know she's not listening, actually, I hope she isn't because we all know what happens when you "try to fool Mother Nature". Parents, you'll have to explain that one to your kids.
The Storm Prediction Center has put all of South Louisiana in the "enhanced risk" zone for severe storms today. Enhanced means there is basically a really good chance strong storms will roll through the area. There is a greater than normal risk that those storms could include tornadoes, damaging winds, heavy downpours, and frequent lighting inside and near the forecast area.
Which you can see from the graphic above the area of greatest concern is from Beaumont Texas eastward along I-10 to Baton Rouge and as far north as Alexandria. What forecasters are saying will happen is a slow moving frontal zone will move over coastal sections of southeastern Texas early this morning. A low-pressure system will form on that front and move northward.
Should that forecast hold true, and it's going to be pretty accurate less than 12 to 24 hours out, that the worst of the storms will fire up south and west of Louisiana's coastline and then move northward during the day.
The greatest threats from this system according to the Storm Team 3 Weather crew at KATC Television will be possible tornadoes and damaging winds. There is also a possibility that some of these storms could contain hail, so you might want to park the car under cover this afternoon and early evening with the worst of the weather is due to arrive.
One of the more accurate forecast models used by KATC, the GRAF Model, also known as the IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System, suggests that showers and storms could rumble through the heart of Acadiana around lunchtime. Areas located to the south and west of Lafayette will likely see storms sooner.
The good news is that this system should be pulling out of Acadiana by mid-evening so if you just have to go out for New Year's Eve you can probably do so rain-free. But temperatures will begin to drop behind the front.
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