Acadiana’s Holiday Forecast – Wet But not a Washout
The July Fourth holiday weekend is upon us. For many that will mean a trip to the beaches of Alabama and Florida or maybe even a deeper dive into the house of Mouse in Orlando. Others will celebrate America's birthday at home in the backyard by the pool or around the barbeque pit. Still, many others will venture out into the end of the day for a dusk time date with fireworks. Unless it rains.
According to forecasters with the National Weather Service Office in Lake Charles about 80% of the region we call Acadiana will experience some kind of precipitation between now and Monday. Of course, the key to not letting that affect your holiday plans is the timing of that rain and when it is most likely to be falling.
Based on the NWS outlook it does appear as if both Saturday and Sunday night will have only a minimal risk of rainfall. However, there is a large chance of rain during the day for both of those days. So the fireworks forecast is a lot more promising than the "daytime" events forecast.
Here are the projected rainfall amounts for the next five days according to the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. You can see that between now and the middle of next week forecasters believe that much of South Louisiana will see between two and four inches of rain.
Most of that rain will come, I believe, later today, through tonight, and during the day on Saturday. That's because a weak frontal system will push into the area today bringing a lifting mechanism to the instability in the atmosphere. When warm moist air gets lifted into the cooler regions of the atmosphere, the moisture condenses and people get stuck in high water on Ambassador Caffery Parkway.
That instability in the atmosphere will stay with us throughout the July Fourth Weekend. That means a strong likelihood of scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the hottest parts of the day. But it won't be a continuous rainfall situation. Most of the rain we receive will come in widely scattered showers and cloud bursts. Some of those bursts could dump a lot of water in a short time, which too could lead to some localized flash flooding.
The bottom line when it comes to going out this weekend, know before you go. You can check the latest radar scan from the National Weather Service right here. And remember with the exception of tonight, the rain and thunderstorms will diminish quickly once the sun goes down.
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