Tropics Remain Active While the Gulf of Mexico Remains Quiet
Last week at this time some of the long-range tropical forecast models were suggesting that there could be a tropical cyclone forming in the Gulf of Mexico just in time for the July 4th holiday next weekend. That doesn't appear to be the case anymore. As is often the case with the long-range models there is just too much that can and will change over time.
While this change in thinking is great news for the storm-weary Gulf South, there are a couple of tropical trouble spots that the National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on. One is in the far eastern Atlantic. The other is actually less than 300 miles off the coast of the United States.
The tropical hot spot that is closest to the United States is actually the system that forecasters are giving a better chance for development. As of now the "center" of this area of disturbed weather is about 300 miles east southeast of Savanna Georgia. The convection around the system is highly disorganized. The Hurricane Center has given this system a 60% likelihood of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next five days.
One thing that could work in favor of this system developing is its proximity to the Gulf Stream. That warm current of water just off the east coast of the United States would be to a tropical cyclone like spinach is to Popeye. So, this system could get its act together well enough for tropical storm watches and warnings to be posted for portions of the Georgia and Florida coast.
Much further to the south and to the east is our second area of tropical concern. Forecasters with the Hurricane Center only give this system a 30% probability of strengthening into a tropical cycle over the next five days. However, it is moving rather quickly to the west and northwest and could impact the outer islands as well as Puerto Rico and Hispanola by the end of the week with some breezy conditions and tropical downpours.
Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic Basin there are appear to be no other areas of immediate concern. Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Basin runs from June 1st through November 30th. There have already been three named storms for the 2021 Hurricane Season. The next name up on the list is Danny.
Since it does look as if we will have our typical July 4th forecast of hot and humid with a chance of showers next week it might be a good time to invest in some outdoor fun for your famly. Here are some suggestions that you might consider.
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