Louisiana Severe Threat Possible Tuesday – Much Colder Midweek

For residents of Lafayette and Lake Charles Louisiana, the first three months of 2024 have gone about as expected. The same could be said for residents in Shreveport and Monroe too. Of course, we are speaking of the weather for the first three months of the now not-so-new year. We had our share of torrential downpours. We had one or two episodes of freezing conditions and ice on roadways. And, the state experienced more than a few severe weather threats during the first three months of 2024.

Now as Louisiana transitions from our "winter pattern" to the more volatile spring and early summer pattern the good news is there won't likely be a drought, at least over the next three months. Here's what the Climate Prediction Center is showing for the nation and Louisiana as far as the long-range outlook for precipitation goes.

As you can see Louisiana, at least most of Louisiana is in the area where above-normal precipitation amounts are expected over the next three months. If the state can just get "an average rainfall" for the spring months we'll be miles ahead compared to where we were last year when historic drought conditions took over for the latter part of the year.

Temperatures over the next three months are expected to be above normal for most of the country. The upper midwest and the Pacific Northwest might bear the burden of a springtime heat wave between now and June. Meanwhile, in the Gulf South, it appears as though we will be warmer than normal but wetter conditions might cancel out some of those higher temperatures.

While the long-range outlook for Louisiana and the Gulf South might include warmer temperatures and the threat of more precipitation over the next three months our greater concern for the moment is the potential threat of severe weather from late today, Monday, through the day on Tuesday, exiting the state in early morning hours of Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center outlook for today has just extreme northwestern Louisiana included in any threat for severe storms. But that area of slight to marginal risk will spread across most of the northern three-quarters of the state during the day on Tuesday.

As you can see from the graphic provided by the National Weather Service Office in Lake Charles the greatest threat of strong to severe storms should remain north of US 190 on Tuesday. Now, that doesn't mean it won't rain or storm along I-10, it's just the most volatile weather conditions will likely be found in north Louisiana on Tuesday.

The rain chances along I-10 are very slight for most of the day on Tuesday, so it does look as if the majority of the storms will remain well to the north of cities like Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans. However, those communities will feel the changes coming behind the storm system in the form of colder temperatures and gusty winds.

How Cold Will It Be in Louisiana This Week?

Temperatures will start very springlike on Monday and Tuesday across the state. However, by Wednesday this storm system should have moved well to the east allowing for much colder air to funnel into Louisiana. By Wednesday the afternoon high will be in the low 70s or about ten degrees cooler than today.

The overnight low temperature on Thursday morning could fall into the upper 40s. The good news is that by the time next weekend rolls around the afternoon high temperatures should have rebounded to nearly 80 degrees. The forecast for the balance of the work week, once we get past Tuesday's potential storms, is very quiet.