Will We Get A Hurricane For Labor Day?

This hurricane season has been pretty good to us so far. No storms near Acadiana is a reason to celebrate, but it seems our run my be over soon. There's nastiness brewing in the sea, and it wants to spoil your Labor Day plans.

According to KATC TV3's Dave Baker, "it's a very difficult forecast right now, because we have computer models that are predicting anything from a few scattered storms to a full blown hurricane. What's more troubling is that we have at least two dependable models that have had consistent tracks and forecasts on consecutive model runs. The RPM (Rapid Precision Mesoscale) model that we use on a daily basis here in the Weather Lab has been the most consistent now on 6 consecutive runs. The tracks have been very similar, but intensity values have continued to increase over time. Another fairly dependable model is the North American Model or NAM. It has also been consistent with bringing a tropical system (although weaker) toward the Texas/Louisiana border this weekend, but then stalling just offshore for a number of days. Another model that is commonly used is the GFS, or the Global Forecast System. It has developed a weak tropical system run after run, but the track has flip-flopped from anywhere from Brownsville to New Orleans, to Tampa, and even one looping it near New Orleans and then sending it back south to the Yucatan!"

So there you have it. Hurricane party, anyone? Cowboy Mouth has the soundtrack: