Models Indicate Tropical Development In The Gulf Next Week
At least one well respected tropical weather model, the GFS or Global Forecast System, is suggesting that the weekend of September 14th, 15th, and 16th might not be all about football in Texas and Louisiana.
That tropical model is suggesting the formation of a low-pressure system in the southwest Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week and the potential for tropical development by the weekend.
You can see the entire GFS Model run via Tropical Tidbits a tropical weather based website. If you jump ahead to forecast hour 252 in the model run you will notice a low-pressure system centered in the Bay of Campeche. This is the area of concern forecasters will be watching and watching for over the next week or so.
This is where I have to remind you that this is one model run and important decisions about life and property should not be made based solely on this information. Since we are talking about a time frame that could be ten or more days away the margin for error is significant. So use the information we are giving you today as a heads up and not a call to action.
Many forecasters have suggested that the tropical season was about to get very busy. There has been a bit of a break in the Saharan Dust that has quelled tropical development for much of the season. Plus, sea surface temperatures are warming up enough to support tropical development.