Will Lafayette Get a Cold Winter? Strong El Niño Favors More Rain, Less Ice
LAFAYETTE, La. — A national winter forecast released Wednesday ties the coming season to what could be the strongest El Niño on record. The pattern typically strengthens the southern storm track and favors more precipitation from California through the Gulf Coast.
“This has the potential to be the strongest El Niño on record,” long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok said. The event is almost certain to surpass the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niños. Meteorological winter begins Tuesday, Dec. 1. Forecasts for the Gulf Coast agree on more rain but differ on temperatures.
What the Winter Outlook Says for Louisiana
The Climate Prediction Center’s Sept. 17 outlook for December through February favors above-normal precipitation across the entire southern tier, including the Gulf Coast. No part of the Lower 48 is shaded for colder-than-normal temperatures on the temperature map.
In its Sept. 10 update, the agency put the odds of a very strong El Niño at greater than 90 percent for this fall and winter. It raised the chance of a record-setting event for October through December to 75 percent. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific were running more than 3 degrees Celsius above average.
A USGS review of six seasonal models used in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble found general agreement on higher winter precipitation along the Gulf Coast. The models agreed less on average temperature for December through February.
Wetter Winter Raises Louisiana’s Flood Threat
In June, Louisiana state climatologist Jay Grymes said coastal parishes tend to run wetter than normal in winter and spring when El Niño lasts late into the year. He said the pattern drives up the flood threat. LSU climatologist Barry Keim said in 2009 that Louisiana sees more spring flooding in El Niño years.
On the Vermilion River in Lafayette, minor flooding begins at 10 feet on the Surrey Street gauge. Moderate flooding begins at 14 feet and major flooding at 16 feet. The National Weather Service office in Lake Charles covers Acadiana and issues the river flood, flash flood, and tornado warnings for the region.
The national forecast also says repeated rain could affect rivers in the Tennessee and lower Mississippi valleys. Areas that enter winter with low river levels could exceed flood stage by spring if the storm pattern unfolds as forecast.
Forecasters flagged the potential for tornadoes in parts of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. Another long-range look at Louisiana’s winter noted that the storm track passes closer to Louisiana in El Niño years than in La Niña years.
Will Lafayette Get a Freeze or Snow This Winter?
Grymes said wet winters in the southern half of Louisiana usually bring average temperatures a little above normal, with more Gulf air moving into the state. Cold snaps can still occur. They tend to be a bit shorter and may not be as intense as those of the past two winters.
The national forecast calls for cooler periods that occasionally reach the Gulf Coast, with rain and cloud cover holding temperatures down. It lists New Orleans and Houston among the cities where colder conditions could raise heating demand.
Last winter’s ice storm hit the state unevenly. A major ice and sleet storm on Jan. 24-25 crippled much of the northern half of Louisiana, and preliminary estimates put roughly 150,000 customers without power. Most precipitation in the southern half fell as rain, although hard freezes extended to the coast.
The USGS analysis says the link between El Niño and snow or ice is weaker across the Southeast and does not rule out winter storms. In much of the Southeast, a few degrees or a storm track that shifts 100 miles or less can separate rain from frozen precipitation.
What Winter Weather Means for Acadiana Crawfish Season
LSU AgCenter crawfish extension agent Todd Fontenot has said short-lived freezes cause little trouble for crawfish. Extended periods of very cold weather do more harm, he said.
Hurricane Season Runs Through Nov. 30
In June, Grymes said El Niño trims the average number of named storms by 20 to 25 percent. That still leaves 10 to 12 in a typical year, he said. Louisiana has averaged one named-storm impact per year over the past 20 to 25 years regardless of the Pacific pattern, he said.
As of Wednesday morning, forecasters expect Tropical Storm Isaias to strengthen into a hurricane over the Gulf and make landfall along the central Gulf Coast late Friday, Oct. 9. A storm surge watch covers the coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana to Yankeetown, Florida.
Key Dates for Acadiana Residents
Thursday, Oct. 15: The Climate Prediction Center releases its next seasonal outlook.
Monday, Nov. 30: The Atlantic hurricane season ends.
Tuesday, Dec. 1: Meteorological winter begins.
Monday, Dec. 21: The winter solstice arrives at 2:50 p.m. Central time.
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Gallery Credit: Joe Cunningham
