Tropical Update: Area Of Disturbed Weather Moving Into the Gulf
(KMDL-FM) Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have given their final report on Hurricane Humberto. They are continuing to track Hurricane Imelda as it spins past Bermuda today. But that's not the only issue in the tropics. Forecasters are actually monitoring the Gulf this morning.
There are actually two other areas of concern in the tropical Atlantic Basin. One of those areas of concern does appear to be on a path that would bring it into the Gulf over the weekend.
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The second area of concern is much further out to sea. It is a tropical wave that is in the very low latitudes just off the coast of Africa. Should this wave hold together, it could affect the easternmost islands of the Lesser Antilles as it slowly drifts to the west over the next seven days.
What Is The Tropical Weather Forecast for the Gulf Coast?
The current prognosis for the area of disturbed weather that is currently on the Atlantic side of the Florida Peninsula but is expected to cross Florida and enter the Gulf, does not call for much strengthening. It, like the other wave further out in the Atlantic, isn't given much of a chance to grow stronger.
Right now, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center only give both waves a 10% of strengthening between now and Monday. But the water is warm in the Atlantic off the Florida coast, and it is certainly warm in the Gulf. That could play a part in development, should there be any for this system.
While it does not look as if this system will be much of a tropical weather maker, it could bring some showers, storms, and gusty winds to the northern Gulf Coast. I have already seen National Weather Service Forecast Offices along the Gulf Coast posting advisories for coastal flooding due to wind-driven tides along portions of the Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi Gulf Coast.
What Should Louisiana Expect With a Tropical Wave in the Gulf?
It is possible, if the system tracks a little further to the west, that some portions of Louisiana's coastline could be rocked with higher than usual waves and tides, especially as we move into next week.
We should note that current advisories suggest that small craft operating in the coastal waters as far west as Terrebonne Parish be cognizant of blustery conditions and rough seas. A small craft advisory has been posted for portions of the coast as this area of disturbed weather approaches.
One respected tropical forecast outlet has already suggested in their outlooks that Louisiana and the northern Gulf should be spared any landfalling tropical systems this season. In fact, the prediction from the Old Farmer's Almanac suggests that while October will remain seasonable, November will be significantly cooler.
Oh, and one other nugget of good news from the OFA, Old Farmer's Almanac, expect it to get cooler, as in gumbo cooler, between October 16th and October 24th. I guess they're seeing a cold front in their crystal ball. We'll just be happy to see less red in our thermometers for a few days.
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