Tropical Model Puts Gulf on High Alert Next Week

(KMDL-FM) The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season is officially 8 days old. That means we are into the "window" where forecasters with the National Hurricane Center become even more vigilant for the development of these life-threatening storms.

Louisiana and Texas are especially vulnerable to tropical storm systems. Our coastal communities are basically at sea level, even several miles inland. That means even minimal storm surges from land-falling tropical cyclones can cause catastrophic damage and loss of life.

READ MORE: FEMA Boss Unaware that Hurricane Season is Underway

READ MORE: What Would Happen if There Were No Hurricanes?

The key to hurricane safety is preparedness. Even now, tens of thousands of Louisiana and Texas residents have a box in their garages or storage rooms filled with supplies that can make life without electricity and air conditioning tolerable, even with heat, humidity, and bugs that a Gulf Coast summertime is famous for.

Tropical Models Are Not Official Forecasts, But You Should Pay Attention

One of the forecast models that the National Weather Service relies on to predict our daily forecasts is the GFS Model. GFS stands for Global Forecast System and was developed by and for NOAA weather scientists. That model is producing a very troubling result for those of us who live along the Gulf Coast.

The current run of the GFS Model, which you can see here, suggests that by Monday, June 16th, a tropical cyclone will transit through the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba and enter the Gulf. The model guidance shows a "significant tropical cyclone" at that time.

From there, the model extrapolation suggests the storm will enter the Gulf. We hesitate to even suggest where a potential landfall might be, but you can follow the model guidance and see where they are speculating. For us to "suggest a landfall" at this time wouldn't be prudent and responsible. Our intent is never to scare but to inform so you can make better decisions for your family.

As of now, the Official National Hurricane Center Forecast does not show any imminent development in the tropics over the next seven days. That's the forecast we will suggest you pay the most attention to. As conditions change and forecast models grow in agreement or disagreement, you will have the most accurate information available.

How Accurate are Long-Range Tropical and Hurricane Models?

Long-range models such as the GFS do provide a glimpse into the future, but their accuracy fades over time through the forecast period. Since we are talking about a potential storm that is at least a week or ten days away, it is safe to say the thinking on whether this will become an actual weather event is at best uncertain.

Remember, for this and any weather situation, accurate information is the key. You will always get accurate and important information via our station app. If you don't have it, get it for your phone right now. 

Get our free mobile app

This is a developing story and will require updates as we move through time. If you'd like to always have the latest tropical updates delivered to your phone in a timely manner, please make this a part of your daily information update. 

And if you're wondering what the potential for a named storm to make landfall in your parish happens to be this hurricane season. We did the math, okay, we reported the math that some really smart people did, and we can offer you this. The probability for a Texas Coastal Landfall follows the Louisiana probabilities, so keep scrolling.