Louisiana Bracing for Big Rains for Back-to-School

(KMDL-FM) Many school systems across Louisiana have already welcomed students back to the classroom. Students in Lafayette, Acadia, Vermilion, St Landry, and Iberia have already spent at least a day in the hallowed halls of learning. Students in St. Martin Parish will return to the classroom this week.

Unfortunately for all of those students, no matter where they meet for classes in Acadiana and along the I-10 corridor will be forced to deal with falling water as part of their daily preparations. Rain chances for the most part have been confined to the afternoon hours during last week's first days of school, but it does appear as though the rain threat will become more likely during all parts of the day.

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There is also a threat of flooding or excessive rain across the area as we move through the school week. There will likely be several days between Monday and Friday that parents will need to make sure kids have appropriate rain gear for school bus pick-up and drop-off times.

When is Heavy Rain Expected in South Louisiana?

As of now, the rain threat appears to be more along the lines of " a lot of rain in a short time" as opposed to "a lot of rain falling for a long time". The "a lot of rain/short time" scenario is the one where we see rapid street flooding in South Louisiana. Roads such as Ambassador Caffery Parkway in Lafayette will take on a lot of water and then need a few hours to drain.

This kind of scenario is possible for much of next week. This doesn't mean it will happen, but the ingredients are in place for those kinds of downpours. The extended forecast from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles calls for a 70% probability of showers and storms through Thursday and a drop off to only 60% for Friday.

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Here is another interesting graphic prepared by NWS/LCH, which gives you an idea of how hot it's going to be and what the rain threat is each day next week for your specific town across South Louisiana and Southeast Texas. It's a handy guide for planning your days.

Is There a Tropical Threat Headed for the Gulf This Week?

The Tropics will need to be watched over the next week. That big "red streak" you see in the Hurricane Center's forecast chart is a tropical wave. That right now is the major concern for tropical forecasters as they monitor the Atlantic Basin.

Depending on what forecast model you review and on what day you review it, that tropical wave could become stronger and could become an issue for the Gulf. However, much of the more recent thinking suggests a curve to the north along or east of the Eastern Seaboard.

Our more pressing concern will be heavy downpours and their timing as it relates to getting kids dropped off at school or safely returned home in the afternoon. Unfortunately, the first full week of school is set up to be a wet one, so make sure you've thought your rain plan through.