Two Storms Spinning – Latest on Louisiana’s Tropical Outlook
(KMDL-FM) It has been an interesting couple of days for forecasters watching the tropical Atlantic Basin. There are two named storms within a fairly close proximity of each other. How those storms will act and interact with each other has been a source of some serious debate among forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.
The more powerful of the two storms right now is Hurricane Humberto. It is currently classified as a Major Hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph. The good news concerning Humberto is that it should not affect any major landmasses with a direct landfall.
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What Is the Forecast Track for Hurricane Humberto?
The storm will produce dangerous surf for the island of Bermuda and the east coast of the United States this week, but that appears to be the extent of what forecasters expect from Humberto. Here is the forecast track from the NHC for Humberto.
Where Is Tropical Storm Imelda Forecast to Go?
Further to the west of Hurricane Humberto is Tropical Storm Imelda. Imelda is centered over the islands of the Bahamas and is on a northerly track this morning. The maximum sustained winds in Imelda were clocked at 45 mph. The storm is expected to strengthen slowly today.
By tomorrow, forecasters believe Imelda will become a Category 1 Hurricane, but it will have changed its track significantly. Forecasters anticipate that Imelda will be pulled out to sea by Humberto. This should pull the storm away from the east coast of the U.S., leaving only wind, rain, and some higher-than-normal surf conditions.
The Gulf, that body of water that lies directly south of Louisiana, has been rather calm for much of the tropical season. There have been storms forecast to move into or form over the warm waters of the Gulf, but that has not materialized, or the storm paths have changed and missed us altogether. Trust me, we are not complaining.
But we still have a few more weeks of "Prime Time" in the hurricane season to get through. But as we look at long-range models for the continental United States, we are seeing more and more cold fronts push across the country and through Louisiana. This is usually a sign that the tropical season is beginning to wind down.
What Is the Tropical Outlook for the Gulf Over The Next Two Weeks?
Here is the outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the Gulf and Tropical Atlantic Basin. As you can see, tropical cyclone formation appears to be "nil" for the first week in October. However, there does appear to be some action in the western Caribbean, or at least the potential for action during the second week in October.
But if you notice on the graphic, most of the Gulf waters close to Louisiana are not highlighted for tropical development over the next two weeks. Which, if that holds, should just about put us near the closing window for a likely appearance of tropical weather in Louisiana.
I believe I am correct when I say no named storm has ever made landfall in Louisiana during November, so if we can get through "Spooky Season" without it becoming "Stormy Season," that would be a very good thing.
Most Feared Weather Events in Louisiana
Gallery Credit: Joe Cunningham