‘Excessive Rain’ Possible Over Portions of Louisiana Again Today
(KMDL-FM) Early Tuesday morning, showers and storms started forming along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana before sunrise. By the middle of the morning commute, Abbeville, Lake Charles, Kaplan, Crowley, and Lafayette had all experienced some or part of a heavy downpour as the rainstorms moved onshore and northward throughout the morning hours.
Forecasters with the National Weather Service Office in Lake Charles say a similar setup is likely again today, with a portion of the state being placed at risk for an excessive rainfall event.
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Excessive Rainfall isn't universally defined by the National Weather Service, but instead, the government agency uses a variety of tools and thresholds to communicate the risk of flooding created by these events. The current "ERO" or Excessive Rain Outlook is issued by the Weather Prediction Center, and for today, they've put the spotlight on portions of western and northern Louisiana.
As you can see in the graphic from the WPC, cities such as Lake Charles, Leesville, Shreveport, Bossier City, Monroe, and Ruston will be under the gun for heavy downpours today. But just because Lafayette and Baton Rouge aren't included in the "risk zone" doesn't mean those communities won't experience a deluge later today.
Will There Be Severe Weather In Louisiana Today?
The Storm Prediction Center does not have Louisiana included in any general risk for severe storms today. However, it is possible that one of these afternoon or early evening storms could approach or exceed the severe thunderstorm threshold, but a major breakout of severe weather is not expected. You can see the SPC Severe Storms Forecast in the graphic below.
For much of the I-10 corridor, rain probabilities are between 50% and 70%. The greater threat of rain is further to the west, and the lesser probability is on the eastern side of the spectrum. Based on the long-range outlook, the remainder of the work week appears to hold a similar fortune for residents who live and work along I-10.
What is the Tropical Outlook for the Gulf Coast This Week?
The silver lining in this slightly wetter-than-typical summertime forecast is the prognosis for the tropics. A brief scan of the reliable long-range tropical models suggests things will be quiet in the Gulf and the Caribbean for the next 10 to 14 days.
The outlook for the weekend along the I-10 corridor does include a threat of more afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms; however, rain chances will be more seasonable.
As many of you know, when the rain chances go down, the temperatures go up, so afternoon readings in the middle 90s could be possible for Saturday and Sunday with heat index or feels like temperatures well above 100 degrees on both days.
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