This early in the tropical season the northwest Caribbean Sea and the southwest Gulf of Mexico are hot spots. The tropical tendency over the years is for early season systems to spin up more frequently in these areas of the tropics than some of the other tropical waters.

Currently, the National Hurricane Center is watching an area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Over the next five days, forecasters believe a broad area of low pressure could form as this system moves into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

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Many of the tropical models are suggesting there will be some strengthening of this system over time. The Hurricane Center has placed the probability of this system becoming a tropical entity at 60% over the next five days.

Should this system become a tropical storm it would earn the name Bret. Most of the track forecast models suggest the system will maintain a northwesterly track and will likely impact the northeastern coast of Mexico or far south Texas.

Regardless of the eventual and actual track of the system the counterclockwise rotation around the system would funnel excessive amounts of moisture into Louisiana. This could lead to an increase in rain chances and some significant rainfall totals during the latter part of next week.